Predicting the French Presidential Election

The Washington Post asked experts on French politics for their observations on the upcoming elections and their “guesstimates” of the first-round winner and final result. My comments appeared in yesterday's issue as part of a feature entitled “The Guesstimator: Predict the French presidential election and win a free Post subscription!” Here's what I had to say:

First-round winner: Le Pen, 32 percent; final results: Macron 57 percent, Le Pen 43 percent. “Le Pen’s base is no more than 40 to 45 percent,” while Fillon and Macron are competing for a realigning electorate. Hurting Le Pen further is that the French are “appalled” by Trump. Finally, Schmidt notes, the “fake jobs” scandals facing Fillon and Le Pen will help Macron. If Fillon does survive the first round, Schmidt predicts Le Pen will pick up some votes from the left due to her strong defense of welfare and her anti-globalization stance.

Rassemblement contre la corruption des élus – Paris 5 mars 2017 – Photo by Jacques-BILLAUDEL

Read the other "guesstimates" here.